EDTA Eye Drops Compared to Abreva for Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-01, after 2022-01-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectpainsubjectspriorrecurrent
Phrases that lowered it: typeefficacy20drugalcohol -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 97 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 457 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 348 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 97 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12762 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 457 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 1.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docosanol, edetic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Acyclovir-penciclovir Cream Versus an Abreva in the Suppression of Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions NCT06558838 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
- Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Two Antiviral Treatments in the Treatment of Recurrent Herpes Simplex Labialis NCT02265913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- A Study to Compare Sitavig (Acyclovir) Buccal Tablet With a Placebo in the Treatment of Herpes Labialis in Participants Whose Immune System Works Normally NCT05098938 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Therapeutic Efficacy of Topical ZEP-3 Ointment (1.0%) for the Treatment of Cold Sores NCT02483182 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Immune Response and General Immune Health in Subjects Infected With Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 (HSV-1) NCT03661541 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.