Efficacy and Safety of Acyclovir-penciclovir Cream Versus an Abreva in the Suppression of Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (331 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painchemotherapysubjects withpriorlesion
  Phrases that lowered it: dayvisitalcoholscreeningthe study
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 95 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 11.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 139616 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 452 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8714 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• EDTA Eye Drops Compared to Abreva for Herpes Simplex Virus Eruptions NCT04893577 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Comparative Safety and Efficacy of Two Antiviral Treatments in the Treatment of Recurrent Herpes Simplex Labialis NCT02265913 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Trial on Efficacy and Safety of Pritelivir Ointment for Treatment of Labial Herpes NCT02871492 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability and Therapeutic Efficacy of Topical ZEP-3 Ointment (1.0%) for the Treatment of Cold Sores NCT02483182 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare Sitavig (Acyclovir) Buccal Tablet With a Placebo in the Treatment of Herpes Labialis in Participants Whose Immune System Works Normally NCT05098938 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.