Lung Cancer With Copanlisib and Durvalumab

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellsmallstageconcurrentsquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidsystemicbleedingpatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 91.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Novel Agents in Subjects With NSCLC NCT03822351 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Study of Durvalumab Given With Chemoradiation Therapy in Patients With Unresectable Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03519971 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Study of Durvalumab Following Radiation Therapy in Patients With Stage 3 Unresectable NSCLC Ineligible for Chemotherapy NCT04249362 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Novel Agents in Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03794544 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab Followed by Chemoradiation and Consolidation Durvalumab for Stage III Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04364048 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.