Study of Ruxolitinib Cream for the Treatment of Discoid Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: equalsubjectssquamous cellto assesslong
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseinhibitorsbreastupperlimit of
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 63 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 319 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 49316 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7272 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus. NCT03958955 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
• A Research Study to Assess if CC-930 is Safe in Treating Subjects With Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT01466725 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy of Topical R333 in Patients With Discoid Lupus Erythematosus (DLE) and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) Lesions NCT01597050 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Targeted Therapy Using Intradermal Injection of Etanercept for Remission Induction in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT02656082 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Drug Levels and Drug Effects of BMS-986326 in Adult Participants With Different Forms of Lupus NCT06013995 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.