Targeted Therapy Using Intradermal Injection of Etanercept for Remission Induction in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-12-31, after 2016-02-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomapatientscancerreceiving
Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeninginjectioninvestigatemale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 28.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 303499 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 27 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 3.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 303499 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 57530 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 28.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- etanercept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus. NCT03958955 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Study of Daxdilimab (HZN-7734) in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Primary Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT05591222 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials terminated
- Study of Ruxolitinib Cream for the Treatment of Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT04908280 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Research Study to Assess if CC-930 is Safe in Treating Subjects With Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT01466725 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.