Study of Daxdilimab (HZN-7734) in Participants With Moderate-to-Severe Primary Discoid Lupus Erythematosus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-05-08, after 2022-12-29 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-05-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 650 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationplacebo controlledconditionacutedouble blind
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantdiseasesefficacy andeffect of -
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 650 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 62 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of DS-7011a in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05638802 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Delgocitinib Cream in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus. NCT03958955 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials terminated
- Targeted Therapy Using Intradermal Injection of Etanercept for Remission Induction in Discoid Lupus Erythematosus NCT02656082 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Study of NKTR-358 (LY3471851) in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT03556007 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of CEP-33457 in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) NCT01135459 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.