A Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: effectivebirthwomen ofentrybiologic
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate thethe trialto evaluatevisitphysical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Dose Escalation Study of ASKP1240 in Subjects With Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis NCT01585233 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Study Evaluating Efficacy and Safety of PF-04965842 and Dupilumab in Adult Subjects With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis on Background Topical Therapy NCT03720470 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Apremilast (CC-10004) in Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Plaque-Type Psoriasis (Core Study) NCT00773734 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3B, Open-label, Single-arm Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Apremilast, in Subjects With Plaque Psoriasis That is Not Adequately Controlled by Topical Therapy NCT03930186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• Maximal Usage Pharmacokinetics and Safety of ARQ-151 in Adolescents and Adults With Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT04279119 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.