Intrathecal Administration of DUOC-01 in Adults With Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomatherapyconcurrentbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsscreeningsafety ofthe studyinvestigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Allogeneic Human UC-MSC and Liberation Therapy (When Associated With CCSVI) in Patients With RRMS NCT02418325 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• Feasibility Study of Human Umbilical Cord Tissue-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT02034188 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Intrathecal Administration of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell-derived Neural Progenitors (MSC-NP) in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis NCT01933802 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Intrathecal Administration of Autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cell-derived Neural Progenitors (MSC-NP) in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT03355365 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416181 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.