A Study to Evaluate Platelet Rich Plasma to Treat Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-12-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantto determinecarcinomaautologous
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgsafetythe studythe efficacydrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, urogenital: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of MC2-25 Cream & Vehicle in Women With Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus (VLS) NCT06132919 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• PDE4 Inhibition in Seborrheic Dermatitis and Papulopustular Rosacea NCT06013371 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized, Open-Label, Crossover Study to Evaluate the Pharmacokinetic Profiles of Rotigotine After a Single Dose of LY03003 (28 mg) Versus After a Week of Daily NEUPRO® Transdermal Patch (4 mg Every 24 Hours) in Healthy Volunteers NCT04384666 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Pharmacokinetics of VYN201 Gel in Subjects With Non-segmental Vitiligo. NCT06493578 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Effect and Tolerance of the Association of Baricitinib and Phototherapy Versus Phototherapy in Adults With Progressive Vitiligo NCT04822584 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.