Efficacy and Safety of MC2-25 Cream & Vehicle in Women With Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus (VLS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-11-08, after 2023-10-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: womenpatientacutesclerosisprior
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofand safetyvehicleefficacy andtrial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 7 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 7 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Progesterone vs Clobetasol Propionate in Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus NCT01126255 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Participants With Lichen Sclerosus NCT05593445 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate Improvement in Pruritus of Lichen Simplex Chronicus With Dupilumab Injections Compared With Placebo in Male and Female Participants Aged at Least 18 Years (STYLE 1) NCT06687967 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate Improvement in Pruritus of Lichen Simplex Chronicus With Dupilumab Injections Compared With Placebo in Male and Female Participants Aged at Least 18 Years (STYLE 2) NCT06687980 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Clobetasol Propionate Versus Fractionated Carbon Dioxide Laser for the Treatment of Lichen Sclerosus NCT02573883 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.