A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Participants With Lichen Sclerosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicacutebiopsyscorepregnancy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsefficacy andand safetysafety ofthe efficacy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 38.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6840 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 52508 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Participants With Cutaneous Lichen Planus NCT05593432 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of MC2-25 Cream & Vehicle in Women With Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus (VLS) NCT06132919 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Assess the Long Term Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Participants With Vitiligo NCT04530344 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Improvement in Pruritus of Lichen Simplex Chronicus With Dupilumab Injections Compared With Placebo in Male and Female Participants Aged at Least 18 Years (STYLE 1) NCT06687967 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Improvement in Pruritus of Lichen Simplex Chronicus With Dupilumab Injections Compared With Placebo in Male and Female Participants Aged at Least 18 Years (STYLE 2) NCT06687980 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.