Study of T-DXd Monotherapy in Patients With HER2-expressing Locally Advanced or Metastatic Gastric or GEJ Adenocarcinoma Who Have Received 2 or More Prior Regimens

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticadvancedadenocarcinomalocallybrain
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andscreeningsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 178 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1677 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• DS-8201a in HER2-positive Gastric Cancer That Cannot Be Surgically Removed or Has Spread (DESTINY-Gastric02) NCT04014075 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• DS-8201a in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Expressing or -Mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03505710 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• DS-8201a in Patients With Cancer That Tests Positive for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Protein NCT03368196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• DS-8201a in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Expressing Gastric Cancer [DESTINY-Gastric01] NCT03329690 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Trastuzumab in Combination With Capecitabine and Oxaliplatin(XELOX) in Patients With Advanced Gastric Cancer(AGC): Her+XELOX NCT01396707 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.