DS-8201a in Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Expressing Gastric Cancer [DESTINY-Gastric01]
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2020-12-11, after 2017-11-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: her2metastaticadenocarcinomaadvancedlocally
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofparticipantand safetyefficacy andmedical history -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 36 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 22 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- trastuzumab deruxtecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DS-8201a in Patients With Cancer That Tests Positive for Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2) Protein NCT03368196 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- A Phase 1 Study of SHR-A1811 in Patients With Selected HER2 Expressing Tumors NCT04513223 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Study of T-DXd Monotherapy in Patients With HER2-expressing Locally Advanced or Metastatic Gastric or GEJ Adenocarcinoma Who Have Received 2 or More Prior Regimens NCT04989816 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- A Study of Herceptin (Trastuzumab) in Combination With Cisplatin/Capecitabine Chemotherapy in Participants With Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Positive Metastatic Gastric or Gastro-Esophageal Junction Cancer NCT01450696 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- IN10018 Monotherapy or in Combination With Docetaxel in Gastric or GEJ Adenocarcinoma NCT05327231 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.