A Study of Lu AG06466 for the Treatment of Spasticity in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-01-31, after 2021-09-27 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 121 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: sclerosismsstablepriortherapies
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsinvestigatedrugstudy
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 121 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 20.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 33 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Investigate the Safety and Effectiveness of Arbaclofen Extended-Release Tablets for Patients With MS NCT03290131 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Arbaclofen Placarbil in Subjects With Spasticity Due to Multiple Sclerosis NCT01359566 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Safety and Effectiveness of Nabiximols Oromucosal Spray as Add-on Therapy in Participants With Spasticity Due to Multiple Sclerosis NCT04203498 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials terminated
- Neurophysiological Study of Sativex in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Spasticity NCT01538225 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate the Effect of Nabiximols Oromucosal Spray on Clinical Measures of Spasticity in Participants With Multiple Sclerosis NCT04657666 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.