Intravenous(IV) vs. Erector Spinae Plane Blocks in Cardiac Surgery

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: greater thankidneycardiacivorgan
  Phrases that lowered it: bmidisordersrespiratoryallergyneurological
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 55.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7689 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Analgesic Effect of Bilateral Erector Spinae Plane Block With Ropivacaine After Sternotomy for Cardiac Surgery NCT05160298 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Erector Spinae Plane Block in Scoliotic Adolescents NCT03968146 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Comparison of Erector Spinae Block and Pecto-Intercostal Facial Block For Enhanced Recovery in Adult Cardiac Surgery NCT05475561 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
• The Effect of High-thoracic Erector Spinae Plane Block on Postoperative Pain and Diaphragmatic Function in Posterior Cervical Spine Surgery NCT06721832 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• The Erector Spinae Plane Block and Its Effect on Respiratory Status and Pain Management in Rib Fracture Patients NCT03805360 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.