Ketamine for Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Disorder
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-11-14, after 2022-07-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: disorderdepressionto severemoderate toiv
Phrases that lowered it: the trialefficacyhealthas determineddetermined by -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 33120 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4006 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 92.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine, midazolam
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Maintenance Ketamine Infusions for Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Depression NCT05339074 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Ketamine Plus Lithium in Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT01880593 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Ketamine for Depression and Suicide Risk NCT02094898 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Optimization of IV Ketamine for Treatment Resistant Depression NCT00768430 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
- The UTHealth Ketamine Project NCT02882711 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.