Maintenance Ketamine Infusions for Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Depression
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (407 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-01-28, after 2022-08-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: acutedepressionto determinepatientscore
Phrases that lowered it: participantshealtharmtrialpatients -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8393 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1187 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Ketamine for Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Disorder NCT05004896 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Ketamine for Depression and Suicide Risk NCT02094898 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- A Study of Ketamine in Patients With Treatment-resistant Depression NCT01627782 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Ketamine Plus Lithium in Treatment-Resistant Depression NCT01880593 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Ketamine Trial for the Treatment of Depression NCT02401139 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.