Ketamine Trial for the Treatment of Depression
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-09-30, after 2015-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 15 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: ketaminedepressionpotentialpatientscontrolled
Phrases that lowered it: participantefficacytrialinadequate responseadministration -
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1907 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 16 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 15 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 6 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1907 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 355 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ketamine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Ketamine in Patients With Treatment-resistant Depression NCT01627782 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
- Ketamine As an Adjunctive Therapy for Major Depression (2) NCT04939649 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Ketamine as an Adjunctive Therapy for Major Depression NCT03256162 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Ketamine for Treatment-Resistant Bipolar Disorder NCT05004896 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Ketamine for Depression and Suicide Risk NCT02094898 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.