Study of AOC 1001 in Adult Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-02-14, after 2021-10-28 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: multipledystrophyblind placeboplacebo controlledthe patient
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticspatientsevaluatestudy today -
Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 13 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Extension of AOC 1001-CS1 (MARINA) Study in Adult Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) Patients NCT05479981 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Global Study of Del-desiran for the Treatment of DM1 NCT06411288 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Phase 1/2 Study of AOC 1020 in Participants With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT05747924 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Study of AOC 1044 in Healthy Adult Volunteers and Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) Mutations Amenable to Exon 44 Skipping NCT05670730 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability, PK, and PD Study of PGN-EDODM1 in Participants With Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 NCT06204809 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.