Extension of AOC 1001-CS1 (MARINA) Study in Adult Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-09-10, after 2022-08-04 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: extensiontolerabilitylong termtypeterm safety
Phrases that lowered it: efficacyevaluate theparticipantto evaluateadult -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 14 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 66 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of AOC 1001 in Adult Myotonic Dystrophy Type 1 (DM1) Patients NCT05027269 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Global Study of Del-desiran for the Treatment of DM1 NCT06411288 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Phase 1/2 Study of AOC 1020 in Participants With Facioscapulohumeral Muscular Dystrophy (FSHD) NCT05747924 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- Study of AOC 1044 in Healthy Adult Volunteers and Participants With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) Mutations Amenable to Exon 44 Skipping NCT05670730 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
- Phase 2a Extension Study of Ataluren (PTC124) in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) NCT00759876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.