Safety and Immunogenicity of BPL-1357, A BPL-Inactivated, Whole-Virus, Universal Influenza Vaccine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 4% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 4% of the time (217 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typecellssmalleligibledisease
  Phrases that lowered it: influenzavaccinenasalhealthyvaccination
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1395 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 80 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Mucosal and Systemic Immunity After Viral Challenge of Healthy Volunteers Vaccinated With Inactivated Influenza Vaccine Via the Intranasal Versus Intramuscular Route NCT03845231 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety and Immunogenicity Trial of MPV/S-2P SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine in Adults NCT06441968 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• First-in-Human Clinical Trial of a Mosaic Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared With a Licensed Inactivated Seasonal QIV in Healthy Adults NCT04896086 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2b, Randomized, Double-blind, Active-controlled Study of Single Dose CVXGA Intranasal COVID-19 Vaccine in Adults NCT06742281 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• VRC 309: A Multi-Center, Open-Label, Randomized Phase I Study of an Investigational Influenza DNA Vaccine Followed by 2009/2010 Seasonal Influenza Trivalent Inactivated Vaccine (TIV) Compared to Two Injections of TIV in Adults 45-70 Years NCT00995982 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.