Exploratory Study of Dipraglurant (ADX48621) for the Treatment of Patients With Blepharospasm

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainother protocolmay applycriteria mayprotocol defined
  Phrases that lowered it: safety of2apatientsthe efficacyor suspected
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension To The B1451006 Protocol To Evaluate The Safety and Efficacy of Dimebon In Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT01066546 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Dipraglurant (ADX48621) for the Treatment of Patients With Parkinson's Disease Receiving Levodopa-based Therapy NCT04857359 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Neuronox and Botox With Essential Blepharospasm NCT03216473 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• LEV102 Topical Gel in Acquired Blepharoptosis NCT05715346 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Open-label Safety Study of Dipraglurant (ADX48621) in Patients With Parkinson's Disease Receiving Levodopa-based Therapy NCT05116813 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.