An Extension To The B1451006 Protocol To Evaluate The Safety and Efficacy of Dimebon In Subjects With Moderate-to-Severe Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 37% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimerlong termterm safetyextensionthe long
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatediseasesdisordersopen labelmoderate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 390 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 712 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Extension To The B1451027 Protocol To Evaluate The Long Term Safety And Tolerability Of Dimebon In Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT00939783 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral Dimebon in Patients With Mild-To-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00675623 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study To Evaluate The Safety And Tolerability Of Dimebon Patients With Mild To Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT00838110 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Efficacy Study Of Dimebon In Patients With Moderate To Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT00912288 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials terminated
• A Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating Dimebon (Latrepirdine) in Patients With Moderate to Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT00954590 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.