ERG/5-HTP in Fragile X Syndrome (FXS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordertherapycognitivesafety tolerabilitytype diabetes
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsperiodparentdosing
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 113 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A 2-Period Crossover Study of BPN14770 in Adults Males With Fragile X Syndrome NCT03569631 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A 6-week, Study of MG01CI Low Dose and High Dose Compared With Placebo in Adults and Adolescents With Fragile X Syndrome NCT02126995 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Placebo-Controlled, Single-Dose Challenge Study of Gaboxadol in Adult Males With Fragile X Syndrome (FXS) NCT06334419 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Study of BPN14770 in Male Adolescents (Aged 9 to < 18 Years) With Fragile X Syndrome NCT05163808 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Safety Study of NNZ-2566 in Patients With Fragile X Syndrome NCT01894958 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.