Placebo-Controlled, Single-Dose Challenge Study of Gaboxadol in Adult Males With Fragile X Syndrome (FXS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: priorkidneyplacebodiabeticreceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: single doseaminotransferaseinclusive40 yearsgood health
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Initial Study of AZD7325 in Adults With Fragile X Syndrome NCT03140813 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• ERG/5-HTP in Fragile X Syndrome (FXS) NCT05030129 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of STX209 (Arbaclofen) for the Treatment of Social Withdrawal in Children With Fragile X Syndrome NCT01325220 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of AFQ056 in Fragile X Patients NCT00718341 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• AFQ056 for Language Learning in Children With FXS NCT02920892 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.