A Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of HZN-825 in Subjects With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-01-02, after 2022-01-20 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebosubjectsscreeningdouble blindtolerability
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsulntrialcancer -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 616 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 616 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 60 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of C21 in Subjects With IPF NCT04533022 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Efficacy of VUM02 Injection in Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06230822 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- A Study of HSK31858 in Participants with Non-Cystic Fibrosis Bronchiectasis NCT05601778 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Proof of Mechanism Study With GSK2126458 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01725139 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
- A Clinical Study to Test How Effective and Safe GLPG1205 is for Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT03725852 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.