A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Oral AKST4290 in Participants With Moderately Severe to Severe Diabetic Retinopathy (CAPRI)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallplacebocellto severedouble
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatevaccineparticipant hasscreening
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Intravitreal KSI-301 in Non-proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy (NPDR) NCT05066230 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Study of the Safety and Efficacy of APX3330 in Diabetic Retinopathy NCT04692688 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of RG7774 in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Type 1 or Type 2 With Treatment-Naive Diabetic Retinopathy NCT04265261 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Diabetic Retinopathy Sulodexide Study NCT01295775 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Prospective, Randomized, Multicentre, Open-label, Phase II / III Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Ranibizumab 0.5 mg Intravitreal Injections Plus Panretinal Photocoagulation (PRP) Versus PRP in Monotherapy in the Treatment of Subjects With High Risk Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy. NCT01941329 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.