A Study to Investigate the Efficacy and Safety of RG7774 in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus Type 1 or Type 2 With Treatment-Naive Diabetic Retinopathy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: typediabetesmellitusdiabeticsafety tolerability
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgblood pressureeffect ofinvestigateand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1146 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 102 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Prospective, Randomized, Multicentre, Open-label, Phase II / III Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of Ranibizumab 0.5 mg Intravitreal Injections Plus Panretinal Photocoagulation (PRP) Versus PRP in Monotherapy in the Treatment of Subjects With High Risk Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy. NCT01941329 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of Oral AKST4290 in Participants With Moderately Severe to Severe Diabetic Retinopathy (CAPRI) NCT05038020 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Nesvategrast (OTT166) in Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) NCT05409235 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study of the Safety and Efficacy of APX3330 in Diabetic Retinopathy NCT04692688 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study of PER-001 in Participants With Diabetic Retinopathy NCT06003751 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.