A Safety and Efficacy Study of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Japanese Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicscorepsoriasisdefinedheart
  Phrases that lowered it: patientslabelefficacysafety ofto evaluate
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1423 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 159 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT05032157 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1 Antihistamines NCT05030311 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• This Was a Dose-finding Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of LOU064 in Patients With CSU Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT03926611 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Japanese Patients Inadequately Controlled With H1- Antihistamines NCT03907878 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess Subcutaneous Lirentelimab (AK002) in Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT05528861 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.