This Was a Dose-finding Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of LOU064 in Patients With CSU Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chronicrandomizationscorepriorassociated
  Phrases that lowered it: participantthe efficacyand safetyefficacy andsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1231 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 160 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2b Study of EVO756 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06873516 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Efficacy and Safety of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1 Antihistamines NCT05030311 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of Safety and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines NCT03580369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Remibrutinib in the Treatment of CSU in Japanese Adults Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT05048342 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of TLL018 in Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria. NCT05373355 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.