Safety and Efficacy of TLL018 in Patients With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-09-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withblind placeboplacebo controlledsubjectleast months
  Phrases that lowered it: moderateto severechronicurticariaclinically significant
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Was a Dose-finding Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of LOU064 in Patients With CSU Inadequately Controlled by H1-antihistamines NCT03926611 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study of Safety and Efficacy of Ligelizumab in the Treatment of CSU in Adolescents and Adults Inadequately Controlled With H1-antihistamines NCT03580369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Phase 2, Multicenter, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Effects of EP262 in Subjects With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT06077773 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2b Study of EVO756 in Adults With Moderate to Severe Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria (CSU) NCT06873516 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3454738 in Adults With Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria NCT04159701 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.