A Study to Evaluate the Effect of Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate on Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Progression in Participants With CKD and Hyperkalaemia or at Risk of Hyperkalaemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-02-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantheartto screeningfailurestable
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmmhgweeksvalsartan
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1681 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 179 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 65.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 471835 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 44397 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Potassium Reduction Initiative to Optimize RAAS Inhibition Therapy With Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate in Heart Failure NCT03532009 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Study Of Diabetic Nephropathy With Atrasentan NCT01858532 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Atrasentan on Reducing Albuminuria in Type 2 Diabetic Nephropathy Treated With Renin-Angiotensin System Inhibitors NCT00920764 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of AZD5718 in Participants With Proteinuric Chronic Kidney Disease NCT04492722 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Reduce Incidence of Pre-Dialysis Hyperkalaemia With Sodium Zirconium Cyclosilicate in Chinese Subjects NCT04217590 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.