Bintrafusp Alfa Program Rollover Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-03-21, after 2021-12-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 38.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: completedeligiblelong termalfaterm safety
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantmultipleparentfemale -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 31 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 38.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 8 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 8 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bintrafusp alfa
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluation of Bintrafusp Alfa in Operable and Untreated Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04428047 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Neoadjuvant Bintrafusp Alfa in Patients With Resectable Biliary Tract Cancer NCT04727541 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- A Safety Extension Study With Benralizumab for Asthmatic Adults on Inhaled Corticosteroid Plus Long-acting β2 Agonist NCT02808819 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Study of the Efficacy and Safety of the Bintrafusp Alfa in Previously Treated Advanced Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma NCT05005429 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials completed
- An Extension Study of Bomedemstat (IMG-7289/MK-3543) in Participants With Myeloproliferative Neoplasms (IMG-7289-CTP-202/MK-3543-005) NCT05223920 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.