Safety and Toxicity Study of Intravesical Instillation of TARA-002 in Adults with High-grade Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (Phase 1b)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-09-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercarcinomachemotherapycellmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatestudy toopen labelsafetyinvestigate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Toxicity Study of Intravesical Instillation of TARA-002 in Adults with High-grade Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (Phase 1a) NCT05085977 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of TAR-200 mg in Subjects With Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02720367 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Experimental Medication BMS-986205 With or Without Bacillus Calumette-Guerin (BCG) in BCG Unresponsive Bladder Cancer That Has Not Invaded Into the Muscle Wall of the Bladder NCT03519256 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• ADSTILADRIN (=INSTILADRIN) in Patients With High-Grade, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Unresponsive Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) NCT02773849 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety and Pharmacology Study of Atezolizumab Alone and in Combination With Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) in High-Risk Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer (NMIBC) Participants NCT02792192 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.