A Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Experimental Medication BMS-986205 With or Without Bacillus Calumette-Guerin (BCG) in BCG Unresponsive Bladder Cancer That Has Not Invaded Into the Muscle Wall of the Bladder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancerbmsbladdercell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantscomponentto evaluatethe upperevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10457 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 628 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Versus BCG Alone in Participants With High-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (HR NMIBC) NCT04149574 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Nivolumab Plus Bempegaldesleukin (Bempeg/NKTR-214) vs Nivolumab Alone vs Standard of Care in Participants With Bladder Cancer That May Have Invaded The Muscle Wall of the Bladder and Who Cannot Get Cisplatin, A Type of Medicine Given To Treat Bladder Cancer NCT04209114 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) and Pembrolizumab With Other Investigational Agents in Participants With High Risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MK-3475-057/KEYNOTE-057) NCT02625961 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare Chemotherapy Alone Versus Chemotherapy Plus Nivolumab or Nivolumab and BMS-986205, Followed by Continued Therapy After Surgery With Nivolumab or Nivolumab and BMS-986205 in Participants With Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03661320 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of UGN-102 for Low-Grade Intermediate-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04688931 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.