A Study of Nivolumab Plus Bempegaldesleukin (Bempeg/NKTR-214) vs Nivolumab Alone vs Standard of Care in Participants With Bladder Cancer That May Have Invaded The Muscle Wall of the Bladder and Who Cannot Get Cisplatin, A Type of Medicine Given To Treat Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: other protocolprotocol defineddefined inclusioncarcinomainclusion exclusion
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsneoadjuvantucinvasiveversus
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 98 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 43236 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11234 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Experimental Medication BMS-986205 With or Without Bacillus Calumette-Guerin (BCG) in BCG Unresponsive Bladder Cancer That Has Not Invaded Into the Muscle Wall of the Bladder NCT03519256 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab, Compared to Placebo, in Patients With Bladder or Upper Urinary Tract Cancer, Following Surgery to Remove the Cancer NCT02632409 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Perioperative Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Perioperative Placebo Plus Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy for Cisplatin-eligible Muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (MIBC) (MK-3475-866/KEYNOTE-866) NCT03924856 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of Nivolumab in Combination With Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Versus BCG Alone in Participants With High-Risk Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (HR NMIBC) NCT04149574 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare Chemotherapy Alone Versus Chemotherapy Plus Nivolumab or Nivolumab and BMS-986205, Followed by Continued Therapy After Surgery With Nivolumab or Nivolumab and BMS-986205 in Participants With Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03661320 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.