An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab, Compared to Placebo, in Patients With Bladder or Upper Urinary Tract Cancer, Following Surgery to Remove the Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycanceradjuvantcisplatintumor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantshepatitis virusand safetyhcvclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3696 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Nivolumab Plus Bempegaldesleukin (Bempeg/NKTR-214) vs Nivolumab Alone vs Standard of Care in Participants With Bladder Cancer That May Have Invaded The Muscle Wall of the Bladder and Who Cannot Get Cisplatin, A Type of Medicine Given To Treat Bladder Cancer NCT04209114 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab in Participants With Metastatic or Unresectable Bladder Cancer NCT02387996 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Experimental Medication BMS-986205 With or Without Bacillus Calumette-Guerin (BCG) in BCG Unresponsive Bladder Cancer That Has Not Invaded Into the Muscle Wall of the Bladder NCT03519256 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• Pre-operative Immunotherapy in Stage II-III Urothelial Cancer NCT04871594 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Neo-Adjuvant Bladder Urothelial Carcinoma COmbination-immunotherapy NCT03387761 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.