A Study of Nivolumab in Participants With Metastatic or Unresectable Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancersubjects within subjectsunresectable
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectdefined inclusionprotocol definedinclusion exclusion
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab, Compared to Placebo, in Patients With Bladder or Upper Urinary Tract Cancer, Following Surgery to Remove the Cancer NCT02632409 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of BMS-986310 Administered Alone and in Combination With Nivolumab in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT03661632 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immunotherapy Study of BMS-986301 Alone or in Combination With Nivolumab, and Ipilimumab in Participants With Advanced Solid Cancers NCT03956680 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study of B-701 in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Treatment of Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cell Carcinoma NCT03123055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Experimental Medication BMS-986205 With or Without Bacillus Calumette-Guerin (BCG) in BCG Unresponsive Bladder Cancer That Has Not Invaded Into the Muscle Wall of the Bladder NCT03519256 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.