Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) and Pembrolizumab With Other Investigational Agents in Participants With High Risk Non-muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer (MK-3475-057/KEYNOTE-057)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerinvasivestagetumorcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andcombinationsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 122 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1132 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2053 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab for Muscle-invasive Urothelial Bladder Carcinoma NCT02736266 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab With or Without Platinum-based Combination Chemotherapy Versus Chemotherapy Alone in Urothelial Carcinoma (MK-3475-361/KEYNOTE-361) NCT02853305 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Paclitaxel, Docetaxel, or Vinflunine for Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-045/KEYNOTE-045) NCT02256436 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-052/KEYNOTE-052) NCT02335424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• MK-3475/BCG in High Risk Superficial Bladder Cancer NCT02324582 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.