IBI310 (Anti-CTLA-4) in Combination With Sintilimab in Patients With Non-small-cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 52 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellmetastatickidneycancerorgan
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelan openmalehcvaccording
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Safety , Tolerability and Efficacy of IBI939 in Combination With Sintilimab in Patients With Advanced Lung Cancer NCT04672356 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant PD-1 Antibody Plus Chemotherapy in Resectable Stage IIIA-N2 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT04422392 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of IBI110 in Combination With Sintilimab and Chemotherapy in Patients With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT05026593 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of IBI939 in Combination With Sintilimab in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT04672369 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Evaluation of Sintilimab in Combination With Radiation in Stage IV NSCLC Patients NCT03812549 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.