Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of ZSP1603 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis （IPF）

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (45 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-12-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantrecipientscharacteristicsenrollmentcyclophosphamide
  Phrases that lowered it: to evaluateevaluate theinvestigateefficacyand safety
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Zephyrus II: Efficacy and Safety Study of Pamrevlumab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT04419558 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Safety and PK Study of BIBF 1120 in Japanese Patients With IPF NCT01136174 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate the Effect of Different Doses of SAR156597 Given to Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01529853 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of SAR156597 in the Treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT02345070 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of QAX576 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01266135 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.