A Study of Maribavir in Japanese People With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellulncellscancerstem
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsvisitscreeningparticipanteffect
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 61 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 519 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Maribavir Compared to Valganciclovir to Treat Cytomegalovirus Infections in People Who Have Received Stem Cell Transplants NCT02927067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of Maribavir in Chinese Adults With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infections NCT06439342 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Maribavir Treatment Compared to Investigator-assigned Treatment in Transplant Recipients With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infections That Are Refractory or Resistant to Treatment With Ganciclovir, Valganciclovir, Foscarnet, or Cidofovir NCT02931539 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus NCT02439957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Maribavir for Treatment of Resistant or Refractory CMV Infections in Transplant Recipients NCT01611974 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.