A Study of Maribavir in Chinese Adults With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infections
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-07-22, after 2024-12-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-07-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstemtransplanttransplantationcancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantscreeningpharmacokineticsfemaleplasma -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 54 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 608 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 608 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 54 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1625 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 578 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- maribavir
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Maribavir Treatment Compared to Investigator-assigned Treatment in Transplant Recipients With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infections That Are Refractory or Resistant to Treatment With Ganciclovir, Valganciclovir, Foscarnet, or Cidofovir NCT02931539 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Study of Maribavir in Japanese People With Cytomegalovirus (CMV) Infection NCT05137717 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- A Study of Maribavir Compared to Valganciclovir to Treat Cytomegalovirus Infections in People Who Have Received Stem Cell Transplants NCT02927067 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus NCT02439957 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 3 Study of Brincidofovir Versus Valganciclovir for the Prevention of Cytomegalovirus Disease NCT02439970 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.