Astaxanthin for Management of Inflammation in Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,012 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-11-14, after 2022-09-02 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: painchronicplaceboevidencesurgery
Phrases that lowered it: kneearthritiseffect ofosteoarthritisadvanced -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 281 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 24 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- astaxanthin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effect of Astaxanthin in Moderate to Severe Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05437601 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- Adipose-tissue-derived Total-Stromal-cells (TOST) Therapy in Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05280002 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of JOINTSTEM in Patients With Degenerative Arthritis NCT02658344 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy of a Single Injection Autologous Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02838069 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
- Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of SAR113945 in Japanese Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT01511549 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.