A Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Trial of CVL-354 in Healthy Participants

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-01-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingmultiplevaccinationpriorthe trial
  Phrases that lowered it: participanthealthyparticipantsscreeningabnormal
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 15 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pharmacokinetics of CVL-231 Following Single Oral Administration of Modified- and Immediate-release Formulations in Fasted and Fed Healthy Participants NCT05106309 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of BV100 in Healthy Male Subjects NCT05087069 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Food Effect Study of RV299 in Healthy Adults NCT06033612 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• Phase 1, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of an Enterovirus D68-specific Monoclonal Antibody in Healthy Adults NCT06444048 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Food Effect and the Relative Bioavailability of the Cabotegravir (CAB) Pediatric Dispersible Tablet (DT) Formulation NCT05776108 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.