A Study to Assess the Hemodynamic Effects, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous APD418 in Adult Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartpressurefailureejectionfraction
  Phrases that lowered it: daypharmacokineticskgdoseat screening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2026 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 189 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JTT-861 in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT06017609 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Worsening Heart Failure or Cardiovascular Death in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure NCT03036124 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (Cycle-2-PEF) NCT06215586 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• DETERMINE-reduced - Dapagliflozin Effect on Exercise Capacity Using a 6-minute Walk Test in Patients With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT03877237 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.