Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JTT-861 in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-05-18, after 2023-12-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-05-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartin subjectssubjects withejectionfraction
Phrases that lowered it: visitonce dailypharmacokineticsefficacyevaluate -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 30 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 30 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 85 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 22 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 18.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study to Assess the Hemodynamic Effects, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous APD418 in Adult Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT05139615 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (Cycle-2-PEF) NCT06215586 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) and Obesity: The SUMMIT Trial NCT04847557 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Safety & Effectiveness of Tovinontrine in Chronic Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction (Cycle-1-REF) NCT06215911 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
- A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of an Intravenous Solution of JNJ-39588146 or Placebo in Patients With Heart Failure NCT01120210 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.