A Study of Tirzepatide (LY3298176) in Participants With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) and Obesity: The SUMMIT Trial
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-07-02, after 2021-04-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartleftventricularfailurefraction
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1398 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 40 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1398 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 170 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 87 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 38 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 86.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- tirzepatide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of LY3540378 in Participants With Worsening Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (HFpEF) NCT05592275 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
- Evaluate Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of JTT-861 in Subjects With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT06017609 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- DETERMINE-preserved - Dapagliflozin Effect on Exercise Capacity Using a 6-minute Walk Test in Patients With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction NCT03877224 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Cilostazol for HFpEF NCT05126836 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Hemodynamic Effects, Safety, Tolerability, and Pharmacokinetics of Intravenous APD418 in Adult Participants With Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction NCT05139615 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.