Clinical Trial of Lurbinectedin as Single-agent or in Combination With Irinotecan Versus Topotecan or Irinotecan in Patients With Relapsed Small-cell Lung Cancer (LAGOON)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cell lunglung cancersmall cellhepatitispci
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationand safetyopen labelrelapsedsafety of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Clinical Trial of Lurbinectedin (PM01183)/Doxorubicin Versus CAV or Topotecan as Treatment in Patients With Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT02566993 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab and Varlilumab in Combination With Radiation Therapy for NSCLC NCT04081688 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Docetaxel + Plinabulin Compared to Docetaxel + Placebo in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT02504489 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• TAS-102 in Previously Treated Unresectable or Metastatic Squamous Cell Lung Carcinoma (UF-STO-LUNG-003) NCT02920476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Pharmacokinetic Study of Lurbinectedin in Combination With Irinotecan in Patients With Selected Solid Tumors NCT02611024 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.