Nicotine Differences in Smokers
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (145 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2023-08-01, after 2022-02-16 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-08-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: placebodosesto determinedetermine thepsychiatric
Phrases that lowered it: smokerscigarettesscreeningmgnicotine -
Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 790 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 28.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: health services research (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- crossover (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- health services research (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 21 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 790 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 153 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 54258 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2869 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 28.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 2.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- nicotine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Abuse Liability of Reduced Nicotine Content Cigarettes in the Context of Concurrent E-Cigarette Use NCT02870218 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Adaptive Use of Nicotine Substitution to Maintain Smoking Reduction/Abstinence in Nicotine Responders NCT06554873 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Effects of Random Nicotine Delivery on Smoking Cessation NCT03674970 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Pharmacogenetics of Nicotine Addiction Treatment NCT01314001 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Innovative Interventions for Smoking Cessation NCT01050569 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.